>If Ghostzapper runs up the track in a grade one next time out, it will be for one of two reasons. Neither will have to do with class.<

This is silly.

No one ever said that because a horse runs a fast race in a lower class he can't move up and run well or win. They do it all the time. In fact, I would argue that some horses that are winning in lower classes will actually run faster if put in tougher situations because they have the reserve stamina and acceleration that hasn't been called upon at the lower levels.

What I am saying is that generally a horse can and often will maximize his speed figure under the less strenuous conditions he finds in lower level competition. Generally, we are talking about small variations because class moves up and down are not huge (they are usually sensible), but they are large enough to seperate contenders that otherwise seem almost identical on speed figures.

What I am describing is similar but not exact to what one would expect from a baseball player batting against "AAA" pitching vs. major league pitching.

His batting average is very meaningful, but it must be viewed in light of the competition. If he's batting 350 in AAA, I'd be pretty sure he can be competitive in the majors, but I wouldn't expect him to bat 350 right off the bat.

I'll take a 350 major league hitter vs. the 350 AAA every day.

I'll also take the AAA player against a 300 major leaguer (or something like that - just trying to illustrate the point.

As far as Ghostzapper goes, he earned that figure on slop, against easy competition, and it was so fast it is unlikely to be duplicated because of mean reversion (or whatever you want to call it)

I am not a 200 bowler, but occasionally I put a few games like that together on a day when everything is working for me. (I assure you I am not bouncing) Ghostzapper is no 300 bowler.



Post Edited (09-02-04 15:24)