Re: Travers - Postscript (520 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: September 02, 2004 03:28PM
I got tired just reading those posts-- a full answer would take a long time. But two points briefly--
1-- You didn't understand the point of the quote you pulled. The point was about bouncing, and possibly the horse getting help in one race he could not in another, and saying his effort next time would not necessarily be indicative, regardless of who he ran against. If GZ had run that level of performance in the Whitney, RIM could have done whatever classy thing he wanted to, he would have got dusted. "My experience of 25 years" is not acceptable evidence (except to you, obviously)-- I've been making a living in this game for longer than that, based on handicapping using the data (both for betting and buying and managing racehorses), and providing others with accurate data to do the same thing using the same theories. And that doesn't necessarily qualify as evidence to anyone but me, either.
2-- The correct analogy to the baseball example would be a horse WINNING 35% of his starts against allowance foes, and not being able to win that % in G1's, because of the level of the competition. But if a guy throws 95mph in triple A, he's probably gonna throw 95 in the majors. What that will get him depends on the competition. Hence the use of performance ratings, to cut across class designations.
TGJB