I agree with much of your analysis, but i worry that with so much development in the past 5 months a bounce is getting more and more likely. I don't really know what to make of the short turnaround-Casse's record with this timing is about the same as his overall record. But he is the fastest horse, with a very strong line, so he will probably be my play as well. I think we may be pleasantly surprised about his odds, the 3 and the 4 will be heavily bet.