Re: Lucy Et .Al. (658 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: September 04, 2004 10:37AM
Having a tough time with the Forego. Switched my mind a few times. I thought Strong Hope was a strong bet in the Met Mile against Pioo Central, but couldn't have been more wrong. Freshening him up for this race is probably a good thing as he really fires fresh.
Most of the horses are throwouts in the Forego go, as they just aren't good enough to win. For "contenders", I think you have Strong Hope, Clock Stopper, A Huevo and Midas Eyes.
Pace is also hard to read. Does Strong Hope clear easily or does the cutback router with blazing speed, Yessirgeneralsir, push the pace.
For me, I won't decide how to bet this race until I see the odds. My strongest opinion on the race is against Clock Stopper. He is going to be overbet and I don't think he is as good as Strong Hope and Midas Eyes and probably won't run be as good as A Huevo.
My "odds line" for the race is:
Strong Hope 35% Chance to win
Midas Eyes 30% Chance to win
A Huevo 20% Chance to win
Clock Stopper 10% Chance to win
The rest combined 5% Chance to win
I am giving Midas Eyes more of a chance than the numbers suggest because I strongly believe that Frankel bringing him back on 10 days rest is a bullish, bullish sign. Frankel is a big believer in the "sheets" and resting his horses, and if he is bringing his horse back on short rest, he must feel strongly that he is going to run huge, which he will have to, to win the race.
A Huevo is impossible to predict. I just can't get over the view of him winning the Grade 1 Defrancis last year under a hand ride after getting pinched back. How do you predict trainers like Dickinson in this spot? Impossible. But I have to respect him.
Tough to say how the race will be bet, but I am guessing Strong Hope is about 7-5, Midas Eyes 5-2, Clock Stopper 3-1 and A Huevo maybe 6-1.
I may bet Midas Eyes to win, but more likely just play the 400k pick 4, keying Midas Eyes and A Huevo in this race.
Good luck