I won't talk anyone off a 12-1 shot with just 2 races under their belt. That said Padilla's Msw stats are stronger 1st out and I think the horse ran to that. Five point bounce five weeks later is suspect, but young horses can snap back quickly and with three more weeks recovery time, this guy could to.

I like the other horses you mention and am always leery of Pletcher w/1st timers especially on big race days. His 1st out stats speak to his prowess in this spot and auction prices as you note imply that despite the relatively low 1st out stats the horses had a positive physical appeal.

Good luck.

TGAB