Re: Midas Eyes at 7-2!!! (487 Views)
Posted by:
derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: September 05, 2004 02:31PM
Midas Eyes had higher than expected odds because he was coming in on short rest after an effort. Sheets money moves the odds in NY and I would guess most sheets players took a stand against Midas Eyes for that very reason.
Which brings me to Jimbo's good point that you want to play underbet horses not just likely winners in order to turn a profit. Good point but I disagree that you should do the two independently.
I look for horses that I am pretty sure will be underbet for a particular reason based on my experience with the betting public (e.g., horse coming off short rest in NY, etc.) If the eventual post time odds match my expectation, I bet with confidence since I believe there is value and I understand why.
However, if a horse goes off at higher odds than I had expected, I am not nearly so confident. I am worried that there may be some factor involved that I did not consider (if not for the short rest angle, I would have been worried that maybe Midas Eyes was unsound, etc.). I may still chase the odds but I am not nearly as confident in doing so.
Simply making an odds line and then betting into it blindly is probably a mistake unless you are very confident that your odds line is rock solid and you have not left out any important information. When there is a big difference between your odds line and the public odds line you have to ask why. If you don't have the answer, you need to factor that into your betting decision as yet another "known unknown."
Chris