>Both TGraph and Ragozin missed this one. Hence 7-2.<

Which is exactly why I had him big.

I look at 4 sets of figures (all done competently even if the methodologies are slightly different) regularly and depending on which set you are looking at you will often come to completely different conclusions about who ran the fastest last time out and what direction he might be heading next time.

There's little question in my mind there are patterns to how horses run, but if you are making bets based on small moves in the figures you are probably making a lot of mistakes. No one has a lock on perfect figures or the perfect methodolgy.

Midas Eyes was an easy overlay to find.

He ran big figures early in his 3yo season and had competed well against top horses in sprints afterwards. He came back with a figure that certainly didn't have to be a top or make him a bounce candidate based on the potential he showed at 3. Some guys didn't even make him top figure in the race or make his last a new peak, so you could easily conclude he was about to peak 2nd of the layoff.

The Pletcher horse was coming in off a 3 month layoff after being sick. Pletcher may be good off a layoff, but there is a difference between coming back off a layoff when you are clearly the best horse and coming back into a Grade I race full of sharp horses of similar ability.

Clockstopper figured close.

This was a race between 3 relatively close contenders. No matter which one you favored for whatever reason, it was still close.

Some people being dogmatic about their figures and patterns allowed me to get 7-2 on a horse that should have been about
2-1 or 5-2. That may not be a great overlay, but it was an obvious one.



Post Edited (09-07-04 10:33)