Re: Arkansas Derby Notes - Charlatan Division (347 Views)
Posted by: bluechip21
Date: May 01, 2020 02:48PM
I appreciate your analysis.
Regarding your comment on Gov Morris. You make an interesting point about not being raced between the Futurity and that Tampa race. Looking through Todd's past few pre-derby seasons, it seems that he would usually have at least one more race before the first Saturday in May. Off only a 3 point top, a slight move forward is about all you can ask for here. So he'd need for Charlatan to get left at the get and pulled up for him to have a shot. That said, if building tickets trying to beat the mighty Bob, he is the obvious "next best".
Another horse you highlighted was Winning Impression. Looking back at Dallas' back to back derby place horses in 2013 and 2014, this one has a very similar pattern to Commanding Curve and Golden Soul (more so GS than CC, with CC paring then moving forward to a new top). But the point being that they paired the 2YO top of around the same number (5 vs 6 in this case) and moved forward. I wouldn't be shocked to see this one get up underneath.
It's a difficult decision to make with Charlatan in this horizontal sequence. Do you single and press (heavily)? Single and spread other races looking for prices? Or, waste a small percentage of your bankroll trying to beat him?
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