bfick Wrote:
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> Nice to have Belmont back with a great betting
> card today. Shug sends out two exciting colts
> making their 4 year old debuts and as much as I
> think both have big 2 year old campaigns ahead of
> them, today is a day to play against them at low
> odds.
>
> 1. FF- has the numbers, but let's see how he does
> first time away from Service. Toss at low odds.
> 2. Performer- super talented colt who I think has
> a big year ahead. Will get a good trip but
> probably needs a new top to get into the top
> spots. Shug's as steady as they come, and will
> have this one ready, but going to play against him
> for top honors and use defensively underneath.
> 3. Still Having Fun- Has a race 2 years ago at the
> track that would make him playable to hit the
> board but has done nothing outside of Laurel since
> then to even consider. Easy Toss
> 4. Nitrous- Needs a new top and today could be the
> day. Got right back to his three year top in his 4
> yr. old debut and has had plenty of time off to
> fire a good one today. Wide trip likely so tough
> to endorse for all the marbles, but definite use
> underneath at the price.
> 5. Network Effort- Already has a three year old
> fig to contend and now gets 8 pounds from the
> fastest horse and looks to be sitting on a forward
> move. Not expecting to get ML odds, but anything
> in 5-1 range makes him the play.
> 6. Midnightcharley- too slow. toss
> 7. American Anthem- has races that at one point
> would have made him the favorite for this race.
> Has since fallen off with new trainer. A return to
> those races would make him a major player and
> double digit price makes this guy interesting.
> Will be using in all slots.
> 8. Bon Raison- Heavy hitter has some goods races
> but most are ground loaded. Another wide trip
> coming and OTB most likely outcome.
> 9. Majestic Dunhill- Has only one race in his
> lifetime that would give him a chance to hit the
> board. Toss
> 10. Mind Control- Fastest horse in the race and
> has has plenty of time since 2 point top.
> However, at the weight and another wide trip he is
> a play against at low odds.
> 11. Vekoma- Tough horse to watch run with paddling
> style but no doubting there's some talent here.
> First race was perfect comeback and expect him to
> fire another strong one here today.Must use.
>
> The Play
>
> Key- 5
> A's= 4,7,11
> B's= 2
> C's= 10
>
> Good luck!

I do not see Still Having Fun as an easy toss. His 2yo and 3yo campaign suggested that he would fit with these when he got older. His Malibu (considerably outside of Maryland) was against 14 very good horses and he missed second by a head against a runaway McKinzie and I think you x out the rest of that campaign. He got rested and is only 3 races into his new campaign -- in the General George, his most recent race, he got as close to the JASON SERVIS TRAINED Firenze Fire as anybody could. I view that as a buried race. He has been working bullets during the Corona shut down for the 4th race in the campaign. These connections do not have to run in a G1 -- they would not be shy to aim lower if they thought the horse didnt fit. Not saying he is going to win, but I do not see him as an easy toss at all and I do see him as a very long horse who could hit and complicate vertical exotics.