Saddlecloth,

You hit the nail on the head - the whole problem is how do you judge a race for what it is. As Jerry has documented on many occasions track speed can change from one race to another either because of natural occurrences (such as rain or tides for coastal tracks) or because of track maintenance.

If you read the comments Jerry has posted from the NYRA track superintendent then you'll appreciate that not only can track speed change from race to race but also around the track itself. That's the reason we split variants.

No one would disagree that if there was a mechanical way of assessing track speed for any point on the track and mapping which parts of the track each horse raced on then that would be a more reliable way of measuring the variant for each race. Possibly one day it will come (I'm an eternal optimist) but in the meantime the only way you can determine how fast a track was for a particular race is by looking at the figures that all the horses in the race have run previously. If you have a different method then I'm all ears.

Finally consider the following: A stakes horse runs in an allowance race and wins narrowly from two 6-y-o cheap claimers in what appears to be a fast time and there is no evidence of any change in the track's speed. When you make the figure you find that either the stakes horse ran 5 points off its top or one claimer ran a 6pt new top and the other a 4pt new top.

Which is more likely? That for some reason the track speed changed and the stakes horse, though winning, ran 5pts off its top or that the the track speed didn't change and the two 6-y-o claimers both ran big new tops?

George