George or JB,

When Miff says there are "many many reasons a horse runs faster or slower", I think most of us would agree with that. What do you do with those races where matching up figures to previous races really won't help. A few examples of what I am talking about:

1. Trainer change to a Dutrow, Frankel, etc. I won't get into HOW they improve horses dramatically, but they do, usually in the first race. Comparing to Pre-Dutrow figures or Pre-Frankel figures, wouldn't seem to help.

2. Major change in track surface. Example, the Kentucky Derby this year. That was about the time I started looking at this board and your product. I remember thinking after the race that it would be impossible for Beyers, JB, or Len to make any accurate figures for that card. The surface changed conditions about 5 times, from muddy to good to fast to good to sloppy. And the track that the Derby was run over was ridiculously sloppy, obviously certain horses couldn't run over it (at least it seemed obvious to me). I was shocked on Tuesday or Wednesday of the week after the Derby when somebody here asked JB about the Derby figures and he replied something like "Actually is was a very easy race to make figures for". I think he keyed off of Limestone if I remember correctly. I am paraphrasing and drawing on memory, so if I am slightly off, it is unintentional, but I do remember distinctly reading that JB thought it was not difficult. I still find that shocking.

3. Equipment changes. I assume that T-Graph believes that blinkers and lasix can affect performance.

4. This last one I am wasting my time with, since I know the answer already, but abnormal pace scenarios that helped/hurt horses in the race.