Re: Comments from a Ragozin User (403 Views)
Date: September 17, 2004 09:04AM
IMO, you should start with the premise that unless you have a tangible reason to think the track changed speed (change of moisture, wind, work on the track etc...) the track speed "probably" remained the same (not certain).
Using that assumption, if a figure does not make sense based on the prior abilities of the horses, you should examine the pace very closely to see if there were one or more fractions (interior) that were very fast or very slow that could account for the strange final time.
If you do split a variant that could be related to pace (even if you are not certain), it should be noted because people that are using pace related information could potentially double count the impact if it was already baked into the figure via a separate track variant.
In fact, I think it would be a very good idea to note every single day where there was a split variant. That way a handicapper would have a better idea of the quality of the figure. NO matter how good a figure maker is, some days are easier and less prone to errors than others. I would like to know that.