JB,

I am not at all surprised by figure discrepancies between various figure makers when it comes to turf racing.

1. There are generally fewer turf races per day relative to dirt from which to try to determine the track speed.

2. They change the rails sometimes and thus change the relationships between various distances from day to day.

3. There are many more very slow paces on turf that impact the final time. Not every figure maker bakes the impact of pace into the final figure. Some prefer to view pace and final time as seperate issues.

I am more surprised by discrepancies when it comes to track vs. track figures when we are talking about dirt races.

First, you obviously have to adjust for the different methodologies. Beyer figures do not contain weight and path information, but you could make those adjustments yourself if you wanted to. Then you would be comparing apples to apples instead of apples to oranges. I think most serious Beyer figure users do some adjustments like that anyway.

If you went through that adjustment process, I would be surprised if the discrepancies were huge for any of the major tracks for dirt racing. I know for certain the Beyer group has access to all the figures they supply the Racing Form via computer and that they cross check all their figures when horses move from track to track to ensure that the figures at various tracks are in sync.

I am not saying that the Beyer figures are “equal” to TG for dirt racing, but I think on an apples to apples comparison they are unlikely to be bad for the major circuits. The turf figures are an entirely different matter.

I think the TG turf figures are much more representative of the horses abilities.



Post Edited (09-21-04 10:53)