JB,

Figures for these European turf horses are a real challenge. I know I have only a few months experience with the T-Graph figures, but it seems that on both Beyer and T-Graph, the European horses that have come over have "outrun" their figures.

For years early on in the Breeder's Cup, I made some of my few winning bets on that day betting against European "superstars" like Dancing Brave and taking our best turf horses like Theatrical and Manila. However, it really looks like in the past 3-5 years, there is a drastic superiority in the European turf horses. Magistretti is really a "second stringer" from Europe and he trounced some of our best turf horses.

So, I guess I have two questions on this topic.

The first is more general, any ideas by anybody out there as to WHY the shift in superiority to the Europeans? Are they getting better bred horses? Is it the lack of focus of American trainers on grass racing, relative to turf racing? If so, why did it take until now to show up, we used to do well against Europe's best in past years.

The second is to Jerry. Not sure if you agree with my point about Europeans outrunning their figures, as I know I am putting a lot of emphasis on only 3 months of data, but if it is true, what do you attribute it to? Do you get good information on the European races with which to make figures? Is it the difference in style where they really lope along in Europe for most of the race and then sprint home, thereby skewing the final times a bit. I know you don't really believe that pace impacts figures much, but it has to impact final time if the pace is ridiculously slow, which happens a lot in Europe.

Thoughts?

Jim