Belmont stakes profile (419 Views)
Posted by: dsipes
Date: June 06, 2022 09:19PM
Going back to 2000, I looked at the Sheets of 28 winners and very very close runners-up. This is the profile of a strong contender in the Belmont Stakes:
1. Used the last 3 races as a Pattern. Any combination starting top-pair or pair-top has resulted in a new top or a paired top 52% of the time (12/23). Consider this in conjunction with #3 and #6 below.
2. 16 of the 21 patterns that had a Top or Pair two back resulted in a new top or a paired top 76% of the time
3. Last fig must be in Top 6 (74% were). If last fig was a sizable bounce, use fig 2 back.
4. KEY: 3yo Top should be no more than 6.3 points better than 2yo Top (24/28 = 85%) 67% had 5.3 points or less
5. 2yo Top: 16/23 (69%) had 7.3 or less; (12/23 52% had 6.3 or less).
6. Since 1992, last out fig has ranged from -3 to 8.3. 20/28 (71%) had 3.3 or lower including 2 of the 4 massive long shots to win this race.
7. Last fig: only 50% (14/28) had highest fig as last fig. 23/28 (82%) had their current year top in one of last two races
8. In last 2 races, 17/26 (65%) paired or improved by 4.2 or less
9. 15/28 paired their current year Top another time this year so don’t be concerned about that.
10. The Pattern Top-Top-Pair has never been a pattern since 2000, so it’s not been a winning pattern nor resulted in a Top/Pair in the Belmont.
| Belmont stakes profile (419 Views)
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