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Gambling (631 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: September 25, 2023 08:50PM

One reason I read this board about 20 plus years ago and check in constantly was because the gambling discussions were interesting, thoughtful, and sometimes profitable with opinions expressed by some super sharp folks. When you would fall behind by 50 or 60 posts in a day or so, it was exciting to see what all you could learn and catch up on.

As the world has moved to a quippy, social media crazed, instantaneous, gobsmack environment, the thoughtful and useful discussions have slowed to a near halt like The Arrival of a Train (1896). It is not just on this board obviously that this transition has occurred. But I find writing still helps me learn and as I've said the TGOG's still check in and read near daily I know.

So, in the vein of longwinded, less quippy writing, I'll comment on my own gambling a bit. I have been putting in the work handicapping the past 2-3 months at times (when I have the time and energy as I work full time and not at a desk like many folks), and my gambling has been pretty terrible to be honest.

That said, I actually think I am making serious strides in my gambling to adjust to the new world. While in Saratoga, I was fortunate to be introduced to a professional gambler that some in these parts know. (I've intentionally not named him so please don't mention him for those that know who it is from my trip up there Labor Day weekend).

A few things he said was that the game is in decline no doubt as everyone knows and pointing in large part at CAW's. He also confirmed my thoughts that CAW's are using AI to scan the pools and see bets and potentially make bets when they see certain patterns even bets as far out as 17 minutes he said which used to be a safe period to put in a wager. He explained as he has expressed publicly this year that you have to ADAPT if you want to continue to be profitable. More discipline, more work, more low-priced winners unfortunately but it can be done. I specifically asked him when I was about to part ways "Are you still profitable?" His answer was beyond interesting. He said "It is but it is getting to the point that it isn't worth it." I told him I was with some TG guys and he asked about Jerry as he knows him but had not known if had been to meet. He had more to say than that about the game and gambling in the 10 to 15 minutes I spent with him but that's what I'll share here. Anywho...

I took what he said to heart. And I have attempted to "Adapt" since. One of those adaptations is that I am going for the jugular (vein!) on my bets now. That does not mean bet larger. It means I am swinging for big scores on 2 and 3 horse bets. Namely doubles, pick 3s and maybe exactas. I am also playing in those situations where I hate the favorite and am tossing that horse completely. I already am pretty disciplined and rarely go on tilt. While at Saratoga, I'm a useless gambler anyway....with travel, drinking, the sights and sounds, the friends, etc,...that doesn't count. But when dead serious, I really give it a good shot esp after talking to him about Adapting.

My success has been limited at best. I've had some decent scores at Fairmount actually where the CAW's attack the wrong horse but despite all the double calculating and multi-pool calculating, they will still go after horses and make them .30 that make no sense and more times than not (but not all) those horses win or lose in a photo. But not every time. I point that out b/c it is hard to determine at a track like Fairmount if you will get CRUSHED even more than the big tracks. Outside of Fairmount, I've been less successful but giving it a good shot without putting in many wagers at all.

Here are the only two wagers I made this past weekend trying to change my ways a bit.

1. Churchill Downs. Saturday night. Races 8-9-10, Pick 3. I played two tickets as follows. 3 with 47 with 58. And 3 with 47 with 5 for the same original ticket amount (half the cost with singling last leg).

The 3 was nowhere losing to the favorite in leg 1. The favorite was a horse I used prominently both Derby and Whitney weekends. Ugh. I'm out.

Leg 2. Second choice (7) wins at 5-2 I believe and I had the favorite on my ticket when I didn't think she would go favored but that horse was nowhere.

Leg 3. I used what turned out to be a 15-1 and 23-1 shot. The 23-1 shot won. I didn't play any other tickets after I was out in leg 1 and the $.50 pick 3 paid $133+. This one HURT a bit mostly b/c the stubborness to not use a horse I respected enough to bet twice this year won for a 3rd time and missing what would have been a monster score for me with the amount of times I played it.

2. Remington Park last night. I played a Double on their Oaks and Derby Double despite the ridiculous takeout.

3,4 with 2 (3rd choice, 4th choice with 4th choice in win pools). I tossed the 2 favorites in leg 1 and played horses that were 7-1 and 8-1 in the win pool. In leg 2, I played TumbaRumba who went off at 6.40-1.

Leg 1 went perfectly and the 7-1 shot won setting up a $146 double. I was excited for my only wager of the day with no need to stress the "Should I bet to win decision where I didn't on Saturday evening". As known now, the 3 horse photo went to Asmussen's 44-1 shot who is making a habit in these type races of bringing in a longer price. When I say "these type races" I mean races where he has multiple horses in the race, at smaller tracks, in some of their marquee races. Three examples include King Ottoman in the 2022 Texas Derby (10-1 winner after being 18-1 til last flash), HOw Did He Do That at PrM and RP. There have been others but those come to mind right away.

Double paid $697.00 for two dollars.

Lesson learned on Asmussen I guess. But more importantly, my wagers were efficient and set up potentially very, very good scores for what I had wagered. This is where I'm heading with my gambling these days. Few bets. Races where I hate the favorites. Set up a score that is ridiculously good value. This all sounds easy and fun in theory. Pulling it off successfully is another. I'm hoping to get the train to leave the station with a decent winner soon to make up for some unsuccessful work lately.

Subject Written By Posted
Gambling (631 Views) Fairmount1 09/25/2023 08:50PM
Re: Gambling (429 Views) Gary Irish 09/26/2023 10:39AM
Re: Gambling (356 Views) jbelfior 09/28/2023 08:47AM
Re: Gambling (336 Views) Gary Irish 09/28/2023 11:16AM
Re: Gambling (374 Views) jbelfior 09/28/2023 05:52PM
Re: Gambling (382 Views) P-Dub 09/28/2023 07:28PM
Re: Gambling (301 Views) statuette 09/29/2023 01:50AM
Re: Gambling (251 Views) Gary Irish 10/01/2023 12:18PM
Re: Gambling (263 Views) P-Dub 10/02/2023 06:53AM
Re: Gambling (249 Views) Gary Irish 10/02/2023 08:03AM
Re: Gambling (388 Views) BitPlayer 09/26/2023 02:31PM
Re: Gambling (351 Views) statuette 09/26/2023 07:16PM
Re: Gambling (324 Views) jma11473 09/27/2023 12:55PM
Re: Gambling (319 Views) statuette 09/27/2023 03:47PM

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