Re: Florida Derby (286 Views)
Posted by:
ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: March 28, 2024 01:24PM
First pass looking at the numbers:
If everyone runs back to their last, given the posts, Hades wins again.
But I think all of the top three should move forward. Fierceness ran like a horse that needed a race. Conquest Warrior improved in a paid workout. Hades raced a bit greenly going 2 turns the first time. Plenty of time off. Wouldn't be surprised if any of these move forward a couple of points.
Disappointed with Frankie's number. But if he settles on the rail he's in range for a piece. Neither he nor Grand Mo have gone back. GMF fits on figs and is inside the two favorites, but 3 weeks is a quick turnaround. Those connections sure are game with this horse.
Hades number seems a bit light. No way he was 2 paths inside Fierceness all the way around the far turn. But don't think it makes a handicapping difference.
Edit: The thoropattern is interesting, in that, of the favorites, Frankie, Hades, and Grand Mo are the most likely to run a top. They're also the three inside horses. That tri would pay nicely.