When a horse jumps up 5-6 points, it usually, perplexs the players. Thank goodness it doesn't happen very often. What are the clues? In this case, it is a bit curious that the jump-op horse (Brunacini) ran faster (by the clock) in his first race at ELP than he did Saturday in the Perryville (G3).

The order of finish looks consistent with the TG #'s otherwise. One course of inquiry is why Brunacini's previous speed ratings are so relatively slow. As already mentioned his recent series of workouts are impressive. His trainer hits at a high percentage. Our suspect also drew in off the also-eligible list suggesting an 11th-hour decision to enter the race. (I think). Then there is the issue of his jockey being schooled in the location of the KEE finish lines.

The predisposition to depend primarily on the previous speed rating explains the horse's price. Danno's celebrity also distracts many from much speculation.

Personally, my mistake was thinking, "WTF is this horse doing in this race?" In my many years of experience, I've learned that this is the clue to look beyond the superficial for what is not obvious.

In hindsight, IMO, this horse was playable even though I didn't see it before the race. Is the sire Dortmund a consideration? I remember (erroneously) further discounting our subject because of Sire Dortmund.

P.S. if one could speculate GOODLOOKING jumping up enough to win then no wonder his jockey rode him with the confidence of a true believer.