Do you want to hit this year's Derby Super?

You shouldn't have to work too hard at it. :)

Since the Points System started in 2013, there have been 12 Derby's.

Couple of notes that may help solve the puzzle based on the Derby's since and including 2013.

Favorite hit the Super every time except last year (11 of 12 Derby's).
2nd choice hit the Super 7 of 12 times.
3rd choice hit the Super 8 of 12 times.
4th choice hit the Super 4 of 12 times.

All 12 Derby's 2 of the top 4 betting choices hit the Super (seeing that fact across all 12 of those races inspired this post).
5 of 12 Derby's 3 of the top 4 betting choices hit the Super.
3 of 12 Derby's 3 of the top 3 betting choices hit the Super.
1 Derby, the top 4 betting choices hit the Super. They hit perfectly in ordinal rank, 1-2-3-4 (Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen, $1,084.20 super for $2). Lowest Super in The Derby obviously.

So if you want to hit the Super FOR $2 (TWO DOLLARS) based on 2 of the top 4 betting choices hitting the super, here's the play (1, 2, 3, 4 denote 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th betting choice in the win pool):

1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4, with ALL with ALL. $7,344.00 Ticket.
1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL. $7,344.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4. $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4. $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL. $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4. $7,344.00 Ticket

$44,064.00 Total Play.

12 Derby's played this way for $2 superfectas would have been a $528,768.00 investment.
TOTAL RETURN for HITTING ALL 12 $2 SUPERFECTAS: $1,094.365.84.

It's just that easy.
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If you can't afford the $44k play, you could play the more affordable top 3 choices as follows on $2 superfectas:

1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL with ALL. $3,672.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with ALL. $3,672.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3. $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL. $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, with ALL with 1, 2, 3. $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3. $3,672.00 Ticket.

$22,032.00 Total Play.

12 Derby's played this way for $2 superfecta's would have been a $264,384.00 investment.

TOTAL RETURN FOR HITTING 11 (ELEVEN) of the 12 DERBY's (would have missed 2018 Super with this approach): $1,055,668.84.

Last approach I'll map out that would have hit 3 of the 12 Derby's on $2 super tickets.

1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL. $204.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3. $204.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3. $204.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3. $204.00 Ticket

$816.00 Total Play. 

12 Derby's played this way for $2 superfecta's would have been a $9,792.00 investment.

TOTAL RETURN FOR HITTING 3 (THREE) of the 12 DERBY's: $32,319.60. ($15,383.80, $1084.20, $15,851.60)

There's a few other ways I could play around with this but this is a solid big picture overview of the super the past 12 Derby's based on ordinal rank in the win pool.

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People are paid ridiculous amounts of money I'm sure to write far less insightful content about racing. Yet here I am providing it all for nothing!! Of course, if there is typo or scrivener's error since I don't have the amazing programming abilities of o_crunk or others, no warranties. But I feel pretty good about it overall.

NOTES: I know the super minimum is $1 but all my notes in my spreadsheet for the Derby are in $2 increments so you can happily cut it in half on all fronts if that helps you out.

In the September 2020 Derby, they ALLOWED DIME SUPERS if that matters to you.

I know my math is not "PERFECT PERFECT" on the ticket costs over the years b/c I calculated all of that assuming 20 horse fields every year which some years there were less than 20. I also didn't add in the tickets where a 2nd or 3rd ticket may have been a winning one on a particular year so the ROI would have been more also.

Now that we solved this puzzle, back to the day-to-day handicapping to find some more winning plays.