Re: Analysis of the Analysis (489 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: November 01, 2004 03:50PM
Tony,
The Sprint had real value in the Superfecta. First favorite over second favorite over two longshots = 40k. (I think that was the price).
The problem for me was no Speightstown or Kela on my tickets.
The Sprint was one of John Velasquez's two very good rides. He didn't panic after the bad break and tucked in behind the cheap speed (Abbondanza). He also gave Ashado a very nice trip from the rail.
For the Breeders Cup, I usually don't factor jockeys into my handicapping because usually all of them that get mounts on BC Day are good. But this year proved an exception. There were quite a few bad rides. I am sure I missed some of them, but these were all pretty bad:
1. Jamie Spencer on Powerscourt. Worst ride in a big race since the Swain race.
2. Kerwin John on Island Fashion. Impatient and 4 wide the whole way. He was doing OK out west before this, but proved he is not ready for primetime yet.
3. Jamie Spencer on Antonius Plus. Plus 4 of his 5 mounts "dwelt at the start". Coincidence? I wonder how many times Angel Cordero had 4 of his mounts dwell at the start in the same day???
4. Edgar Prado on Sense of Style and moreso on Wonder Again. It pains me to say this, since I love Prado, but he rode bad in both races. Wonder Again figured to sit 3rd or 4th at worst, with her tactical speed, even with the wide post. If you would have told me they were going to go 52.3 to the half and Prado would be 15 lengths off of it, I would never have believed it. Sense of Style may have been "over the top" anyway, but she is another with tactical speed that figured to sit closer to the lead and he got her out 2nd to last also.