Re: Analysis of the Analysis (604 Views)
Posted by:
P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: November 01, 2004 04:30PM
Tony,
It paid $49k for 2 bucks but your point is well taken. The all button can be your best friend.
I think everyone is going a little overboard regarding the analysis. Most of us buy TG throughout the year without any analysis from TGJB. We read the graphs and make up our own mind. Its similar to going to the track with buddies who use the same info as you (DRF,TG,Trackmaster, whatever) but come up with different opinions on a race. Same with TG. Now I admit Jerry is better than most if not all of us at reading patterns. But to expect him to be perfect, or to blindly follow every last opinion he has is ludicrous. Especially when the analysis is done before odds, track condition, etc.. are known. TGJB will point you in the right direction often enough, but don't expect him to hold your hand all day. True there were many opinions that didn't pan out...............BUT he did say
MILE
-Singletary has the best chance to run a new top
-AP got weight, lasix, and with 2 pts improvement would be a borderline contender.
His final analysis never gave a specific play, so if you interpreted his comments on ALL horses its not inconceivable that this exacta could be played. It paid $1400 for 2 bucks. At the odds (isn't that the reason we use TG) it certainly could have been played. What does he have to do, give out cold $1400 exactas?? Its up to us to be creative and find plays that have a reasonable shot. My main play in the race was Whipper but I saved with different small exactas using prices, one of which was Singletary/AP.
Now I will admit that a lot of the analysis missed, but do you have to agree with everything he says?? Ghostzapper was a gift at $7. Any other day of the week and a horse with that kind of numbers edge is 4-5. Every horse in the super figured for a relatively easy $1100. It doesn't take many winning tickets with these types of results. I made many terrible wagers Saturday, but the last thing to blame is the analysis. 2 winning tickets out of probably 100 can still be a good day.
One last thing....how reliable are the turf/Euro figs? Most of these Euro horses are not as fast on TG but manage to outperform them. Just wondering.
Post Edited (11-01-04 16:46)
P-Dub