Figures are funny things. The only reason we are having this debate is because horses are suddenly running negative 6.5's. Negative 3 and 4 were hard enough to deal with and now we have to factor neg. 6.5 The numbers I look at essentially are at all time highs as well.

I have come to have a simple rule. Trust T-Graph explicitly unless theres some oddities involved with the day itself. Changing track conditions, unascertained bias, something along those lines. T-Graph says GZ ran neg 6.5's at 9 marks. I tend to believe them. Which is not to say I'm convinced GZ ran a neg 4 in the Classic, but I do understand the sliding grid application and assigning him a neg. 4 works out pretty good for most of the field.

T-Graph is the gold standard. If you are able to isolate an issue, you have the opportunity to score nicely. However for the once in a blue moon race where I think I'm onto something that they are not, I'm exposed to 20 other races that are solid and unimpeachable. Its also possible that when I do find an issue I'm lucky rather than good and I understand that.

Last year I was convinced Read the Footnotes ran faster against Second of June in the Fountain of Youth than T-Graph scored him. I thought it was a big top. I remember some talk about the Remsen being "up figured" compared to the other fig makers and therefore the fig T-Graph assigned in the F.O.Y. was perhaps a top and that could have explained his bounce in the Florida Derby. At least thats what I recall. At any rate I was convinced it was very fast, bounce fast, and I decided upon Value Plus and hooked him up in myriad combinations. One other horse scared me. Friends Lake and I put him atop Value. The only horse I did so with. Good Thing. Very Good Thing. :) In hindsight, I was lucky because The Cliff's Edge was a better horse than those two. Just not at the time is all. What happened to all those horses anyway? RTF, Second of June, Silver Wagon, Friends Lake. Strawberries!

Anyway I suspect T-Graph may have gotten the Classic wrong. The race to a great extent fell apart with injuries and traffic and pace issues and I suspect a bias. But even then I'm only talking 2 points in my estimation. When RIM and GZ wax me next time with negative 5's I'll offer T-Graph my sincere apologies.

:)

CtC

looks like straight line is the TCE heir apparent. like that strawberry road on the back.



Post Edited (11-06-04 18:51)