JB,

I know you are probably not going to concede this point, but "if" there are impacts on final time that result from position, pace, quality of competition, and other aspects of trip there are going to be occasions when you might overrate a race.

Here is one example:

If a very dominant horse that usually runs a -2 happens to get in a 3 way duel with horses that usually run a +1 and he draws off to win by much more than that difference in speed suggests, there are 2 ways to intepret that result.

1. The -2 ran a faster race than a -2 and the +1s ran back to their race.

2. The two +1s were used up chasing after a superior horse and ran equal performances but slower than expected. The -2 ran back to his -2.

Isolated incidents like #1 would tend to lead to figures that are getting faster and faster over the very long haul (ever so slowly and imperceptably) and they might not be correct.

IMHO, you may be 100% correct that horses are getting faster. I do not know, but you present a fairly compelling case for that. However, you might also be overstating how much faster they are getting because of a bias in your thinking about the impact of various aspects of trip.