Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Breeder's Cup Ground (487 Views)
Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: December 07, 2004 04:01PM

Okay, we reviewed the BC Sprint to look at the horses SoCalMan2 asked about.

1-- Pt's Grey Eagle got beat a head, a neck, and 3 pounds by Clockstopper. Assuming equal ground loss that would give him about 3/4 point the better figure, so the only way Clockstopper could have gotten a much better number (as Ragozin gave it) would be if he was significantly wider. But as all 3 of our guys who did the race, as well as the DRF/Equibase trackman (see the chart) found, Clockstopper got a RAIL trip-- he actually SAVED ground slightly relative to Pt's Grey Eagle (who started the turn 2 and dropped to the rail late). Ragozin has a gross error (about 1 1/2 points) in the figure for Clockstopper.

2-- A similar situation exists between Midas Eyes and My Cousin Matt. MCM beat ME by 3 1/4 lengths, so assuming equal trips he would get 2 1/2 points the better figure. But ME was wide (our guys had 456, 33456, and 3345, the chart says "raced four wide on the turn, was floated six wide leaving the turn"), while MCM got a RAIL trip according to all 4 sources. Using 4 wide for ME you get a ground loss differential of 3 lengths, slightly less than the margin, and very similar figures for the two horses. The only way Ragozin could have MCM running a much better figure is if he has ME significantly closer to the rail, or MCM well off it. In looking at the relationships within the race on Ragozin, it looks like they got ME wrong. By a lot.

3-- Champali was 3 wide according to all 3 of our guys and the Equibase chart. As seen above, the problem is that Ragozin had Clockstopper 3 wide when he was actually rail, so he ends up giving them the same number, when Champali should get a much better figure.

Look-- this is the big leagues, and you guys are paying serious money for the data, and betting serious money based on it. You have a right to a serious, professional effort. There is no way it is okay to make these kind of errors for an event the magnitude of the BC. That's why we had 3 guys look at it-- it is beyond unlikely that all 3 would blow the same horses the same way. Clearly the Ragozin operation did not place the same importance on getting it right, and there is no excuse for that.

And maybe more importantly-- it is clear that the Ragozin office reads this board. How they respond to the information that they got it wrong will tell a lot about what they think of their customers-- as it has with similar situations in the past.



TGJB



Subject Written By Posted
Suspicious Differences (733 Views) SoCalMan2 12/05/2004 09:40AM
Re: Suspicious Differences (504 Views) jimbo66 12/05/2004 11:26AM
Re: Suspicious Differences (457 Views) TGJB 12/05/2004 12:51PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (613 Views) SoCalMan2 12/06/2004 03:32AM
Re: Suspicious Differences (511 Views) TGJB 12/06/2004 02:41PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (433 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/06/2004 04:18PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (444 Views) NoCarolinaTony 12/07/2004 02:45PM
Breeder's Cup Ground (487 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 04:01PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (485 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/07/2004 04:17PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (484 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 04:25PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (514 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/07/2004 04:52PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (568 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 05:37PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (427 Views) Michael D. 12/07/2004 06:12PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (431 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 06:28PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (468 Views) Michael D. 12/07/2004 06:35PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (452 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 06:44PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (458 Views) SoCalMan2 12/08/2004 06:56AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (546 Views) Silver Charm 12/08/2004 09:09AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (445 Views) SoCalMan2 12/08/2004 10:13AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (503 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/08/2004 03:20PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (429 Views) TGJB 12/08/2004 03:30PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (507 Views) SoCalMan2 12/09/2004 06:46AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (474 Views) SoCalMan2 12/09/2004 08:37AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (457 Views) kev 12/07/2004 08:19PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (490 Views) miff 12/07/2004 06:55PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (502 Views) TGJB 12/07/2004 07:10PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (451 Views) Josephus 12/07/2004 08:00PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (537 Views) Michael D. 12/07/2004 08:11PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (420 Views) kev 12/07/2004 08:24PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (426 Views) Josephus 12/07/2004 08:31PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (480 Views) Michael D. 12/07/2004 08:39PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (499 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/07/2004 08:32PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (514 Views) miff 12/07/2004 08:53PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (460 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/07/2004 11:20PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (505 Views) Josephus 12/08/2004 11:49AM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (526 Views) miff 12/08/2004 12:57PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (469 Views) TGJB 12/08/2004 01:03PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (419 Views) TGJB 12/08/2004 12:46PM
Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (509 Views) Michael D. 12/08/2004 02:54PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (454 Views) gowand 12/08/2004 01:46PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (439 Views) miff 12/08/2004 01:56PM
Re: Suspicious Differences (496 Views) TGJB 12/08/2004 02:19PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.