Re: Breeder's Cup Ground (459 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: December 07, 2004 11:20PM
miff wrote:
> Check out the latest performances of KELA, OUR NEW RECRUIT, MY
> COUSIN MATT, CHAMPALI,MIDAS EYES, Better TALK NOW ,SILVER
> TREE.
One of the "key" concepts in handicapping, and I lose on it too though, is that you must try to determine "trainer intent". This is especially so in cheaper claiming races. (I tend to avoid them like the plague unless I have some solid insight.) In other words "what was the objective", "what is the objective". Horses are not machines. You can't wind them up and send them out and expect that they will always run the same effort. The best trainers point horses for specific races. The trick is to ascertain for what was the horse "intended". (This can be done with TFig patterns certainly) I do it a little different I think.
For example I was looking very close at A Huevo in the DeFrancis, until I realized he'd been started in a Grade I in New York. That was Dickenson's "intended" target and A Huevo wasn't up to it. The DeFrancis was more of a secondary goal and so I discounted him on the New York effort. Dickenson is very much a "target" trainer.
The intended race for the horses in the Breeders Cup was the Breeders Cup. I wouldn't expect them to be at their peak with many of these trainers four weeks later.
CtC
Post Edited (12-07-04 23:23)