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Re: ROTW (470 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: December 20, 2004 04:05PM

I think the analysis should go firmly in one direction or another.

There's nothing wrong with a general analysis of the horses' figures and their likely direction going forward. That leaves the betting and value decisions in the hands of the reader.

There's nothing wrong with an analysis that includes an oddsline estimate other than the problems with making an accurate oddsline long before post time.

The ROTW has the obvious disadvantage of being done before late scratches and being able to see the track condition. For some people (like myself) that would be an enormous disadvantage because I place more weight on things like bias and race development.

If I were doing it I would refrain from using an oddsline and simply categorize the horses in some fashion.

1. Standout
2. Major contender
3. Similar in ability to "X"
4. Live second string contender
5. Non-contender
6. Other

Then I would add general comments about potential race development issues/biases that could impact my order of preference.

That way you could get the gist of how I was ranking the contenders and how closely matched they were WITHOUT spelling out the exact oddsline.

If you are going to do an oddline, then someone should actually track the results.



Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (659 Views) TGJB 12/20/2004 01:37PM
Re: ROTW (448 Views) 12/20/2004 01:55PM
Re: ROTW (406 Views) spa 12/20/2004 02:28PM
Re: ROTW (502 Views) jimbo66 12/20/2004 03:44PM
Re: ROTW (397 Views) TGJB 12/20/2004 04:01PM
Re: ROTW (415 Views) jimbo66 12/20/2004 04:11PM
Re: ROTW (462 Views) TGJB 12/20/2004 04:15PM
Re: ROTW (390 Views) jimbo66 12/20/2004 04:15PM
Re: ROTW (396 Views) 12/20/2004 04:41PM
Re: ROTW (411 Views) jimbo66 12/20/2004 05:25PM
Re: ROTW (392 Views) 12/21/2004 09:08AM
Re: ROTW (442 Views) dodie 12/21/2004 12:37PM
Re: ROTW (408 Views) Saddlecloth 12/20/2004 11:41PM
Re: ROTW (470 Views) 12/20/2004 04:05PM
Re: ROTW (403 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 12/20/2004 09:53PM


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