Re: Horsemanship (434 Views)
Date: January 11, 2005 11:50AM
I break these move up/super trainers into several groups.
Those that develop lightly raced horses of high quality significantly over time. I don’t see the big deal with this group. Some guys have a barn full of tigers to work with almost every year and do a great job of developing them, spotting them where they belong, and getting a high percentage of winners out of them. Their success attracts other wealthy owners who give them even more top horses and a self-reinforcing pattern of success develops. I’ve been seeing trainers that fall into this category since the 70s and I don’t think many of them are cheating because they do have ups and downs.
Those that move up OLDER horses that they recently acquired from another trainer (lightly raced young horses are expected to move up) . If the horse was acquired from a trainer of lesser competence I don’t see a problem. If he was acquired from another highly regarded horseman, I am more suspicious. However, I think time is also a factor. If trainer “X” takes over the training of a horse and 2-3 months later he’s hitting new tops that could easily be the result of a different training regimen, nutrition, care etc.. It’s the big move ups by older horses coming from another competent trainer in only a couple of weeks that are a problem. The reality is that there aren’t all that many of those. There are clearly some though.
However, handicappers shouldn’t be complaining. It’s the owners and fair trainers that should be complaining. Handicappers should view this as part of the game no matter why it is occurring. Instead of whining about drugs, milkshakes, etc…. keep track of who the move up trainers are and what their modus operandi is and simply adjust your betting. These situations can be a source of profits. If you know trainer “X” often moves up horses in a certain situation, there may be plenty of bettors that are just looking at the raw figures, trips, class etc…. and that could create an overlay situation. So exploit it when you can and take it into account when making your odds line.
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