Re: Horsemanship (512 Views)
Date: January 11, 2005 02:22PM
JB,
I wasn't being specific to Frankel even though I know that most of the thread was about him. I was just making general commentary because there are a few trainers under suspicion because of superior results that IMO are not cheating.
I used to feel exactly the way you do when it comes to the gambling aspect of this. In fact, I used to get into heated debates about it because I felt the insiders had a huge edge and I could never get it right. However, the reality of it is that a few of the best horseplayers I know don't make make much money with speed figures, pace figures, sophisticated field strength analysis, bias, trips, etc... They make almost all their money off trainer changes and patterns among the supposed juice guys. They notice "meaningful" things quickly before it gets built into the odds, get off at the right time etc...
So like it or not, there's substantial profits in it if you focus on it and get very skilled at it. The guys I am talking about whine when nobody seems to be juicing their horses a lot because they can't find profitable situations. :-)
At this point I realize that this type of thing is not one of my strengths. I think I don't have the insights needed to be profitable and even if I do I am not comfortable when I feel like I am guessing. So I focus on the races where I believe it isn't a factor as often (grades stakes vs. claimers etc...) When I am unsure what's going on in one of these big races I just pass.
At least it has stopped bothering me. I don't play maiden races with a lot of first time starters or turf races with a lot of first time turfers either even though I know a guy that rarely bets anything except races like that. It comes down to my skill set and insights. The money is there to be made.
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