In the past three years or so [with White Mercedes], so many of the ThoroGraph sheets of Pletcher's horses have shown that explosive performance off a layoff in the early part of the Gulfstream meet. [For PROUD ACCOLADE, that was the 3 (taken up) when he ran away and hid in the Hutcheson.] Your average horseplaying shnook with ninefingers - me included? - might naturally figure these "maturing" three year olds will move forward next out. After all, they're "growing" right? But a large sampling of Pletcher sheets - especially his 3 yr. olds - show that these off-the-layoff explosions usually are followed by BACKWARD moves. Visual aids are really needed here to show tangible evidence of this. There also is the idea that PROUD ACCOLADE'S training had been interrupted and that he ALREADY had been injected last year to run a 1 [!]. His reaction to that 1 was two severe negative moves. So why shouldn't he do the same here?

On the other hand, FLOWER ALLEY (with the same green, yo-yo trip - up close, then dropping back, then preposterously coming on again late when he went into "Oscar drive") reminds me of the yo-yo winning trip of MEDAGLIA D'ORO's first win out west in a Derby prep for Frankel. Was it the San Rafael? Same vet. Same "growing into the steroids" forward move. Unlike PROUD ACCOLADE, FLOWER ALLEY had worked well after his layoff try - the 5. It was pretty obvious he was going to move forward and that HE, not PROUD ACCOLADE, was what Pletcher was there for. Was his March 13th workout really "the best workout of the entire winter at PmM" like I think was mentionned on the telecast?

At 10-1, FLOWER ALLEY was the play. PROUD ACCOLADE did the same thing BIRDSTONE did last year at Turfway. Tube!

For weeks now, after the fact, I've tried to contribute the idea that the big boys [backed by White Mercedes] win the big races. I apologise for trying to hammer that idea home weekend after weekend - as if I have a clue. Feel free to ridicule me.

I'll gladly take the 10-1 and $591 double.

JohnTChance