HP,

IMO the full value of the Delta race wasn't reflected in the TG speed figure (assuming you make pace figure adjustments).
If pacefigures was still available, I could show you that. That's the race that Closing Argument came out of to run a much improved figure. Tex's trip was even tougher there. It was a huge pace figure. In Beyer terms, I'm sure pacefigures would have given Tex a performance figure of over 100.

TG captured the ground loss of the San Rafael on the first turn (not built into the Beyer), but IMO, when a horse is working hard wide on the first turn to stay with the early leaders in an honest/fast pace, it almost always takes more out of them than the just the ground loss.

I didn't see a pace figre for the BM race and it wasn't easy to estimate one, but visually it looked like he was used hard putting away the other dueler and held OK.

So I think he ran 3 races that were superior to what they looked based on rawer speed figures. I also liked the workout coming into the race.

I can't argue with you if you believe that running 3-4 tough races in a row is a negative. I didn't think it was as likely for Tex to move forward as some of the other more lightly raced horses, but I didn't see a debacle either.

Other than our personal views, I don't think the race proved a darn thing. He was so dreadful I don't think the race proved anything about my analysis of his prior performances. Perhaps we will learn more about his ability later on a fast track if he's not done.



Post Edited (03-29-05 09:41)