Re: White Mercedes wins two... again! (yawn) (372 Views)
Posted by:
Bally Ache (IP Logged)
Date: March 28, 2005 05:43PM
HP
okay, let's use the race at hand as an example (even though it works against me).
I had Wild Desert & Mr. Sword. I did not have Flower Alley. My third horse was Mayan King. The irony there is that one of the cornerstones of my betting is recent, frequent & fast workouts. Preferably over today's track & more than 3 furlongs. Despite his good works I let Flower Alley go.
Mayan King was my third choice despite recognizing that G. Contessa was getting into unfamiliar waters here. Why? Well, they both only had two starts and I preferred a horse sired by Stephen Got Even to Distorted Humor at 1 1/8 miles. I overlooked the off track and the obvious discrepancy between Pletcher & Contessa, particularly in a race of this type.
Why? Well, a friend of mine used to say you always have to leave yourself a way to lose. I think of that every time I do something stupid.
My best pick of the day was Daddy Joe in the previous race. It would have given me the pick 3($1750 or so). But I got nothing for it because some implausible (to me) bomb came and got him. Check the chart of that race and see how far back it was to the 3rd horse.
I came out slightly ahead for the day but I could have had a much better day. Lay all the horseplayers end to end who could make that statement on any given day and you'd have a very long line.
This post has gotten too long but, in a nutshell, the game is in interpreting the info - and that's an art.