Re: A dogmatic dilemma (427 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 11, 2005 01:17PM
Michael,
I didn't say I expect to get 7-2. Read my earlier post, I was critical of CH for saying Bellamy would be a "lukewarm" favorite. He will be a solid favorite.
What I said was that I wish there were as many skeptics in the betting pool for the Derby as there were on this board, so I COULD GET 7-2. I don't expect to get it.
Right now, I can't figure out a way to get any value on Bellamy. He is 5-2 offshore where I bet, which is worse than "pool 3".
What I am considering is taking a different approach to betting the horse. Right now, I can get 8-1 on a horse winning the Triple crown. I might take that bet. (not Bellamy doing, ANY horse doing it).
8-1 seems short, considering nobody has won it in 26/27 years, but I don't know how many horses have had the numerical advantage that Bellamy has. And if he loses the Derby, I get the Derby winner at 8-1 to parlay the Preakness/Belmont. Tough, but also possible.