No I don't remember Riva Ridge. I thought his 3 year old year was 1972 though, so if his track record was from 1971 it must have been set as a 2yr old in the Nashua or something, but thats not really relevant. I undertand your point. "If he tied a track record on a major track he must have run really fast". Thats generally true, I just dont think it was as true Wood Day. Don Six is a fast horse, but he tied a six furlong mark that day as well.

But lets assume you understand that Survivalist is the "pair key" upon which Bellamy's big number is calculated from and you believe he paired. What you have then is Bellamy with a -5, now what?

Lets assume he draws post 7, what do you do with him? Lets assume further Afleet Alex goes off the favorite at 7-2 with Bellamy 4-1 and Bandini 6-1. Apparently he can bounce 8 lengths and still be competitive right? Whats his projected number in the circumtances and do you think it will win?