Chuckles,

For the record, I have heard from a Rags user that Jerry has the Wood Faster than Len does, and Len thinks T-Graph is wrong about the race (surprising that Len would think this?) I think Rags has Bellamy's Wood the same speed as Bandini's Bluegrass, whereas Jerry has Bellamy a little faster than Bandini, although both are very fast.

Interesting that you would surmise that Afleet Alex is 7-2 and Bellamy Road 4-1. I don't disagree. You must be noticing the same groundswell that I see in support for Afleet Alex and there are lots of Bellamy doubters. I go to the Meadowlands Pegasus club for the Derby and they have a nice brunch/lunch spread. I bet a friend of mine that the first time we see the odds from Churchill on Saturday, that Afleet Alex will be the favorite. He says Bellamy. Loser is buying.

As for what to do with Bellamy, I am really really struggling. I have changed my mind 5 times in the past two weeks. Part of me wants to just key him on top of Superfectas, betting against AA and Greeley (both bouncing!), using longshots in the Super that I think have a shot like Andromeda's Hero, Flower Alley, Coin Silver and Closing Argument. I will also structure the wager such that High Fly or Noble Causeway must be in the super.

Then I change my mind and say how can you bet the favorite in this race. He hasn't beaten a single quality horse this year and will be affected by Spanish Chestnut and the other speeds. In this scenario, I think you have to consider that everything about this year points to the fact that Florida is where the best 3 year olds are. I think I could key the 1-2 finishers in the Florida Derby, High Fly and Noble Causeway. Both are in the "1" range and would need to move upp a little. Off the 5 weeks rest, they could. NC would appreciate a fast pace to close into and HF has tactical speed. Having two fresh horses, both fast, both coming from Florida, with Jerry Bailey and Gary STevens in the irons, could be a good thing. I figure about 8-1 on High Fly and maybe 10-1 on Noble Causeway. Although I do think there is a good chance that NC becomes a "wiseguy" horse and gets bet down on Derby day.