I would suggest that your logic and your math are flawed. This is not uncommon among horseplayers. My team's success relies upon, and relishes, mistakes such as these.

It is interesting that when people talk about unsophisticated money in the pools, they are refering to those that make wagers based upon names or colors. The far greater opportunity lies in exploiting areas of hueristic instability.

Although I have no idea what our models will construct for this race since these are done with two minutes to post, I can say that initially we differ considerably on two horses. Our models give significantly less chance to Deputy Dash and significantly greater chance to another horse. Who's model is right? I know how our models have performed over the last several years, but one race is one race. However, I can state for certain that your exacta fair pays need some more work. But again, I encourage you to keep using them.