Sorry about that, I somehow accidently cut the last message short.

Regarding the exacta payoffs: using formulas that assume that "fair" win odds are highly correlated with "fair" exacta odds is OK but inferior to the Monte Carlo approached used by my model. Of course, as with everything else in this game, that opinion is open to debate although the shortcomings of such an assumption are pretty well documented in the book, "Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets (Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics," by Donald B. Hausch, Victor S. Y. Lo, and William T. Ziemba (Dr. Z) et al.

As you said, the value in any model is based on performance in the long term, so if you have a successful model, stick with it. In fact, I would be interested in finding out more about your model.

Chris

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell