HP,

I wasn't clear. This is the way I see it.

Beyer gave the race a 100 (that's what I heard at least). That sounds about right to me based on the results (give a couple of points).

Closing Argument's race is a LOT better than a 99. Exactly how much better I can't say, but definitely better because he was reasonably close to that pace even though he wasn't on top of it. He was probably close enough to take a little starch out of him. Plus he lost plenty of ground. However, a 100/99 itself is a pretty bad figure for the Derby. So whatever extra you want to assign to him for being wide and being close to the heated pace, it converts into a very good race but not super. If the race itself was pretty fast and he overcame that tough trip, I'd say he ran super.

I'm not really sure how much the pace actually factored in even though I'm sure it did factor in.

Horses like Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut figured to collapse under any circumstances. High Fly/Flower Ally were a little suspect at 10F. FA wasn't all that good to begin with. So how much was pace and how much was distance?

BR had a similar trip to to CA (maybe a little tougher because he was closer). However, I really wasn't all that sure he was going to run another great race to begin with given that he had never beaten anyone or ever faced any pressure in his life.

I know this is probably not a satisfactory answer (maybe even annoying :-), but unfortunately I think it's very difficult to measure this stuff. I do the best I can to be approximately right instead of exactly wrong. :-)



Post Edited (05-09-05 11:43)