big18741 wrote:

> Closing Argument ran these splits:
>
> 22.70 23.80 23.93 25.51 26.91
>
> His first 6f's was very solid and he was always within 2
> lengths of Bellamy Road who completely fell apart.

Bellamania may not have completely fallen apart. He chased hot fractions on the best part of the track and having expended more energy than he had to in his previous two "no mas, no mas" fights, he foreseeably tired. Still not a bad effort.

High Fly is a
> miler at best.

High Fly was a little close to hot fractions, but he's already proven to be a good 9 mark horse.

Afleet Alex needs soft fractions in a two turn
> race to have any punch.

Afleet was on a part of the track that was not ideal and he assuredly moved backwards some. Still he almost won continuing to run on a slower part while his two main rivals ran the stretch on a far better part.

He didn't get them and won't in
> Baltimore.

The Baltimore race has to be a concern because Afleet Alex ran hardest of the bouncers on a deeper part of the track. But, hes far better than the two that beat him and probably better than the marvelous Bellamania.

Honestly,the winner didn't run any different from the
> way he's been running in Cal.Slow and steady.Closing Argument
> ran a really nice MILE -after that it was a case of the field
> being wretched.

What a bunch of pigs.

Obviously you are deep into fractions. Beyer is a smart guy, but hes so wholly into his numbers he can't see the big picture. He zigs when he should zag. Bellamani had to be feared on how fast everyone said he was, but conditions were stacked way against him.

>
> The Preakness is begging for a new shooter.

What will happen is horses that did not fire or were disadvantaged in the Derby will rebound in the Preakness. Scrappy is a good horse, but hes got his hands full with the quality he's about to see.

>
> Giacomos splits:
>
> 24.78 23.44 24.33 24.55 25.65 steady grinder.
>
>