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Re: peter pan (426 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: May 30, 2005 11:20AM

TGJB,

"....is one of the ways I know that Andy is using pars at some point in the process (another is the relationship between certain circuits, or more specifically certain types of circuits)."

This is what I know.

He is using projection figures for a "minimum" of all the major circuits and has a database of every figure for every horse.

When horses switch circuits the computer system examines the horses' figures and will flag any discrepancies that are consistent enough to know that one of the circuits is in error. An adjustment can then be made.

In other words if horses coming from track "X" are running "Y" slower when they leave for other tracks, he knows that track "X" is too fast.

I know that he keeps pars for all the tracks, but if he uses them in the process at all, it's only for the very tiny tracks. If those tracks get out of whack, they are brought back in line as horses from those tracks move circuits with projection figures (same as above).

IMHO, there is no way to be certain about anyone's figures over time despite the fact that many helpful techniques are used.

Every figure maker has biases in their interpretation of results (things like the impact/lack thereof of pace, position, weight, bias, moving up and down the class ladder, etc...) that slowly creep into the figures over time.

No one is more interested in making cross generation comparisons than I am, but I think we are all better off worrying about getting the current figures right than the relationship between decades.



Subject Written By Posted
peter pan (742 Views) mikemd 05/27/2005 11:41PM
Re: peter pan (395 Views) Michael D. 05/28/2005 06:42AM
Re: peter pan (400 Views) big18741 05/28/2005 07:55AM
pace edge ? (402 Views) johndrj 05/28/2005 11:08AM
Re: pace edge ? (421 Views) twoshoes 05/28/2005 11:15AM
Re: peter pan (455 Views) davidrex 05/29/2005 12:59PM
Re: peter pan (349 Views) kev 05/29/2005 01:32PM
Re: peter pan (420 Views) miff 05/29/2005 01:39PM
Re: peter pan (405 Views) kev 05/29/2005 02:02PM
Re: peter pan (387 Views) miff 05/29/2005 02:20PM
Re: peter pan (397 Views) mikemd 05/29/2005 03:18PM
Re: peter pan (448 Views) miff 05/29/2005 03:21PM
Re: peter pan (364 Views) mikemd 05/29/2005 05:37PM
Re: peter pan (380 Views) miff 05/29/2005 05:49PM
Re: peter pan (403 Views) miff 05/29/2005 05:52PM
Re: peter pan (368 Views) marcus 05/29/2005 06:24PM
Re: peter pan (393 Views) miff 05/29/2005 06:43PM
Re: peter pan (386 Views) marcus 05/29/2005 07:42PM
Re: peter pan (462 Views) ronwar 05/28/2005 04:45PM
Re: peter pan (370 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/28/2005 05:25PM
Re: peter pan (419 Views) Saddlecloth 05/28/2005 05:51PM
Re: peter pan (424 Views) jimbo66 05/28/2005 09:30PM
Re: peter pan (380 Views) 05/29/2005 09:27AM
ROTW (466 Views) miff 05/29/2005 10:34AM
Re: ROTW (383 Views) kev 05/29/2005 10:58AM
Re: ROTW (387 Views) miff 05/29/2005 11:16AM
Re: ROTW (379 Views) kev 05/29/2005 12:24PM
Re: ROTW (387 Views) richiebee 05/29/2005 12:11PM
Re: ROTW (380 Views) 05/29/2005 12:34PM
Re: ROTW (364 Views) miff 05/29/2005 01:15PM
Re: ROTW (412 Views) TGJB 05/29/2005 02:18PM
Re: ROTW (422 Views) miff 05/29/2005 02:30PM
Re: ROTW (353 Views) TGJB 05/29/2005 02:42PM
Re: peter pan (408 Views) jbelfior 05/31/2005 11:26AM
Re: peter pan (388 Views) Michael D. 05/29/2005 11:01AM
Re: peter pan (441 Views) jimbo66 05/29/2005 12:40PM
Re: peter pan (343 Views) TGJB 05/29/2005 02:27PM
Re: peter pan (378 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/29/2005 08:02PM
Re: peter pan (363 Views) TGJB 05/29/2005 08:06PM
Re: peter pan (426 Views) 05/30/2005 11:20AM
Re: peter pan (434 Views) 05/30/2005 11:27AM


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