Anybody check out the Mother Goose on Saturday? Summerly would be a great bet against as the favorite. She is the morning line favorite off the win in the Oaks, but I think it is probably wishful thinking on my part that she goes off favorite here. She won a Grade 1 with an "off", and looks a little off form, off the "10" followed by a "5". Add to that she missed time due to illness and the trainer is on record that she is not as tight as she was for the Oaks, and you have a horse to "throw out", hopefully at short odds.

Smuggler would be the bet for me, assuming she goes off the 3rd choice. She got down to a "2" last time in a very good race in the Acorn, against some sharp horses. She is third off the layoff, which for Shug, makes her about 51% to pair up or run a new top. She has experience over the Belmont track, unlike the other two favorites, and has already proven she likes the 1 turn routes. My concern is that she has already progressed 7 points off the 2-year old top, combined with only 3 weeks between the tough Acorn race and the race Saturday.

Spun Sugar is only slightly slower, having run a "3" in the Black-Eyed Susans. With more rest, and a very healthy looking pattern, you could probably make a case she is more likely to run a new top on Saturday. I worry that the "3" was slightly aided by a sloppy surface she is bred to love and since I expect her to go off the favorite, I like the better price on the faster horse, in Smuggler.

For triples, I would throw out Summerly and look at Seeking the Ante, she is moving forward nicely, down to a 4.5 in her last and has shown an affinity for Belmont.

Advanced apologies for this last comment to HP, but Smuggler at 5-2 looks like a great bet to me...........