I'm in your camp on this one. It's hard to like a favorite that missed some training coming into a race of this caliber when the trainer is admitting that she's not 100%. Besides, she wouldn't be a layover even if she was 100%.

I'm limited in what I can say about her last race coming up a bit slow, but I think it can at least be noted that In the Gold came out of that "slow race" to run quite well in the Acorn. I might also note that some of her faster races prior occurred under what some people viewed as "favorable conditions".

On the plus side, I think she has enough speed to control this. Any horse that has enough quality to take control from Sis City (even a sub par Sis City) and then repulse a very strong mid race bid has enough quality to put away horses like Lady Pegasus and Winning Season at their current level. Unless one of the quality horses keeps her honest too, she will be tough even if she's an underlay.

Assuming we are lucky enough to get a chance to bet against her as a solid favorite, I probably lean towards Smuggler "a hair" over Spun Sugar. However, IMO it's so close it doesn't matter much. The odds will probably be more important. They are both lightly raced, improving, from high quality barns etc... I just think Smuggler might be a hair better than some people think for a few reasons I won't get into. I would just suggest you look at the final 3 furlongs of the Three Rings. The last race speaks for itself.