In my mind, the 'change in conditions' (the extra distance) will make the bounce even more likely, provided that's what the pattern indicates. Isn't it harder to run further? More tiring?

I have no doubt War Emblem has the heart and stamina to go 1-1/2 miles, certainly as much as anyone I've seen this year. But the real issue is, can he do it after four huge races in a row, the two of which immediately preceding this one were two weeks apart? With each huge race he runs I think it becomes more likely, unless he gets a freshening.

The real question for me is, even if War Emblem bounces, who will be fast enough to capitalize on this? In this case, I think there will be some candidates, but I will refrain from any further comment until I see the TG. Sign me, firm bounce believer (this time). HP