TGJB,

If I'm off the specifics, I'm sure you'll delete it. :)

a. If a figure maker is willing to concede that the track can change speeds from time to time under extreme circumstances (rain, drying out) AND because of daily track maintenance (both camps believe this if I am understanding their stated positions correctly) I don't see why one wouldn't use subjective skills (looking at the horses prior figures etc....) in "both" cases to obtain an accurate variant when a race doesn't seem to fit with the day. It doesn't make sense to do it for one and not the other. Of course, you would need to actually know there was rain/track maintenance. It would also be helpful to know how the track tends to react to "x" weather/maintenance. I see no major difference between extreme weather situations and track maintenance other than the degree of potential track speed change.

b. IMHO, a variant based on the average of several races would tend to "limit the degree" of occasional error. Figures being used as input to a race may not be perfect and interpretation errors are always possible. Larger subjective errors resulting from either of those would/could then be passed on to future races. Therefore, the figure maker should be "very confident" that the track changed speeds before breaking a race out. (Just ask Andy Beyer about all the high profile figures he has blown by breaking races out).


I'm going back to my poker game before the bombs start getting lobbed.






Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/2005 05:15PM by classhandicapper.