Re: How Fast Was It? (644 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: September 27, 2005 03:54PM
The short answer to this is that it is much more likely those horses ran to their level of ability than that all chose the same day to run exactly the same amount worse than that level. What would be the point of the projection method-- using previous figures-- if you were going to arbitrarily decide to ignore the previous figures? The perfect scenario in figure making would be to have a whole field pair up its previous figure, or their tops.
Any other way of doing the race-- which would take the WHOLE field in one way or another-- is much less likely. And I certainly would not create figures based on the theory that horses as a whole are getting worse at longer distances-- it may or may not be true overall, but it has nothing to do with a specific case, or with how you make figures-- if I did that I would be doing exactly what Miff mistakenly keeps accusing me of doing to "make" horses run faster.