Re: How Fast Was It? (560 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: September 27, 2005 06:21PM
Bit-- That "median"idea is what I was referring to in a post a ways back when I was talking about a range that horses run in-- if you have too many who run new tops, or too many who run "X"s, something is probably wrong. But you CAN'T just have them all in a medium range-- their relative figures are fixed by lengths etc. Some run better on the day relative to their tops than others do.
But it's a whole different thing to give horses NEW tops than to PAIR tops, or recent good efforts. Sure, you could make a case on an individual basis that those first 6 horses would still look okay if you add a point or so. But it really is strong that all 6 ran back almost exactly to their most recent best, and it would be some coincidence if all 6 ran about a point (or some other number) off it on the same day. Why all choose the same day to be at 98.13 percent?
And by the way, in this case these are stake horses, running for 750k. With the exception of the Derby (and we could spend a lot of time on discussing that), stake horses run an awful high percentage of tops. Take a look at the stakes races this weekend, going in-- see how often those horses run at least their previous tops.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/27/2005 06:36PM by TGJB.