Jimbo-- There are horses who like off tracks, and they will run better on them than they will on other tracks. There are horses who don't run as well, and will run worse. And there are horses who are looking for an excuse to run a bad one, and an off track will often suffice. This all leads to the phenomenon that CH was talking about, where the field gets strung out all over the world. It also used to happen on the old TP track, and happens at Kee-- horses love it or hate it. (They can burn Kee down as far as I'm concerned, by the way. Just leave the grass course).

That horse you mention ran that race at Kee. In making that figure I looked at that race (all the horses), and the surrounding races. There have always been horses that came out of nowhere for one big one, it's just more glaring now because a "big one" is so big. But there have been lots, and they seldom get back to the figure.

As for number two-- no. If the horses did not fall into their usual ranges (let alone pair up), there would be much more of a case to be made the numbers were wrong. That so many did is strong evidence the numbers are right-- that's what we have to go on when we make these things. This was not a case where you had to choose between giving one horse a big one and several what they usually run, or one what he usually runs and several "X"s. (This is what CTC's "not stringing out" means in figure terms).

And by the way, this was not a case where I broke the race out, not that it matters, because it couldn't have come out any tighter. Depending on which time you use, I either added or subtracted a little over a point compared to the other off-track route, which is nothing on any day, let alone with those kind of conditions.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 09/27/2005 06:40PM by TGJB.