Miff--

1-- PD's figure is set in stone, relative to those run by the first 3 finishers (and everybody else), because of the relationships of weight, ground loss, and beaten lengths. If I give him worse, I have to give all the others worse. That would mean you have a 750k stake with no one running as well as their previous best. (Keep in mind that I gave none of them a new top).

2-- The evidence (not proof) that we were right, regardless of what Beyer and Ragozin do, is the result of the race, AND HOW THE FIGURES CAME OUT. You miss this point regularly-- I don't start with some theory of how PD ran, and work towards it-- I can't give him that figure and the others their figures unless the relationships hold up. Get it? Just like I don't start with a theory that horses are getting faster-- you make the variants based on the older, proven horses, and if the younger ones are getting faster, they're getting faster.

3-- I hope Beyer and Ragozin got it "different". I live for that.

4-- There is a reason people started making speed figures-- they enable you to as objectively as possible compare performances, and without them people draw the kinds of conclusions you have. Also, other figure makers, who either don't use or don't have the proper relationships of ground loss, weight, and CIRCUITS, can come up with anything.

All of which is good, because those two things are the reason I have had success with buying and managing horses-- if the public perception (even the reasonably educated one of guys at your level) was accurate, there would be no possible edge. If you and others could tell just by looking how well horses ran, I'd be out of business-- but I have continually found horses whose ability is concealed, and have succeeded with them, because both the figures and the analysis have held up, in a very tough game.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 09/28/2005 05:41PM by TGJB.