bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tony,
>
> I analyzed the card in detail ad here’s the race
> by race break-down of the dirt races.
> 1st) The early leader faded to 3rd despite being
> the even-money favorite.
>
> 2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2
> and 3 early finished 1 and 2, but they were the
> 2 favorites
>
> 3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed
> from 5th to 3rd to 1st.
>
> 4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on
> favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from
> 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1
> shots respectively.
>
> 6th) Early leader faded to 3rd. 1st and 2nd place
> finishers were 2nd and 3rd early but were also 2
> favorites.
>
> 7th) Early leader faded to 5th (last). Winner was
> 2nd early but was odds-on favorite.
>
> 9th) Leader faded to 6th. Winner was 2nd early but
> the 2nd place horse closed from 6th. The 3rd
> placed horse closed from 7th to 5th to 3rd despite
> very wide trip.
>
> 11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.
>
> 12th) Best 2 horses in race ran 1-2 (see my
> pre-race analysis) and happened to do it from the
> front. 3rd place horse closed from 8th to 5th to
> 3rd but couldn’t catch better horses on lead.
>
> Ergo, no evidence of speed bias. Q.E.D.
>
> Sorry you had to work so hard searching for a
> non-existent bias when you could have easily had
> the Florida Derby Exacta cold by seeing the track
> was playing fair.
>
> Quite frankly I’m puzzled how otherwise rational
> handicappers can believe that the track surface
> can magically recognize the hooves of front
> runners and give them more spring than those of
> closers. Yes, there is such a thing as a live rail
> bias and on those days, horses with speed are more
> likely to beat the others to it, but that’s not
> what most people mean by a speed bias.
>
> Bob
>
>
Dear Bob,

I chose Race 11 to re watch and also re read the DRF/Equibase Charts.

11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.

Now here's what really happened: The second place horse sat right behind Bandini the entire race. Oconnell the 4 horse broke with the leaders and just sat off them the whole race and right next to the 1. Who's Crying Now (#7) went out of his element and tried to force the pace as he usually is a deep closer. He changed his running stle because No One had closed a lick up till that point. Contante another Deep closer here is the DRF Comment: Taken back early, moved up racing down the back stretch, made a run three wide to loom a threat and faltered down the stretch. Now a Horse you may want to watch next time out is Noble Causeway as he did make up lots of ground deep stretch but was too far out of it.

Now my point has always been that no horse could close down the stretch on that day. If a certified deep closer like Contante couldn't do it, something was not playing right that day. It played to early speed the entire day.While it may have been more of an inside bias vs speed I'm not as qualified as you. I am certainly not as qualified as Jerry.

My last point on the issue.


Oh- I also see that Classhandicapper takes your point of view on your board.

Enough Said!!

NC Tony