Re: TGJB-Barbaro in deep stretch (662 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: April 05, 2006 06:14PM
Gee Chuckles, I'm so heart-broken to be boring you.
My point was that there are a number of reasons that GP was not speed favoring that day. And yes, improvement of position is one definition of closing. Being able to catch and pass a horse or horses in front of you means the so-called speed bias didn't exactly hurt the horse in question. That happened several times that day.
This whole dogma about speed favoring tracks is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy than an accurate description of the racing surface. If the jocks believe it, most will try to be forwardly placed early. That means that horses racing off the pace are back there because they are slow rather than being rated. Slow horses tend to lose races, further perpetuating the myth that it has something to do with the track surface. There is just no explanation that makes sense that a track surface somehow reacts differently to the hooves of frontrunners and closers. Think about it.
I may or not bet Barbaro in the Derby but I’m certainly not going to downgrade his FL. Derby performance on the basis of some dubious speed bias.
Bob