Interesting choices for wise guy horses Jerry. Everybody has their own definition of a wiseguy horse, but for me, it is a horse that should be longer odds, but for some reason the public bets the horse down to lower than expected odds. In the derby, it has been because of breeding (Saarland) and sometimes Pat Day's presence + perceived bad trips (Dollar Bill).

I am not sure that you can consider either Sweetnorthernsaint or Sinister Minister "wise guy" horses, since they are the two fastest horses on your figs, coming into the race. They are fast enough to win, in fact are the fastest at their tops, so they won't be "overbet" at the 7-1 to 12-1 range they will probably be in, respectively.

Sinister Minister really presents an interesting problem, IMHO. We all can talk endlessly about the speed bias and skewed results at Keenland and there are a long list of horses that ran their eyeballs out there and finish up the track at Churchill and other race tracks. And, I would certainly agree (as most everybody else probably would too), that a horse running a 7+ point new top, at keenland, running back in 3 weeks, is a bet against in the Derby. However, we are talking about a horse who is 3 points faster than anybody else coming into the race, and oh, by the way, you get Baffert as your trainer and he has won the big ones before. Normally, betting against a horse like this can be value, since they would be short priced favorites. However, what do you do when you do expect the horse to bounce, but he is 3 points faster than anybody else and he will be 10-1 in the race. There is no "value" in betting against 10-1 shots. Even if he is 90% to bounce, that still leaves him 10% to pair or better and he wins if he does that. He might even be able to bounce 2 points or so and win, since he figures to lose no ground, on the lead, in a crowded field, where others will lose ground. Granted, off the huge new top, he could bounce to the moon, but at expected odds, with a 3 point edge on the field going in, with an expected groundsaving trip, he is an interesting horse to say the least.

I guess Brother Derek is the horse most likely to run his race in the Derby. He has run basically the same race 3 times this year, which is only 1 point better than his 2 year old top, so he seemingly has room to improve. Plus, he has won his races in hand, so you could argue he has more speed he hasn't shown. However, you could also argue that he has not been prepped right for a 20 horse grind. I really don't like the fact that he hasn't been looked in the eye yet as a 3 year old in the stretch and has galloped through his wins. He won't gallop in the Derby and he will have to be very good to win. Considering he is the 3rd fastest going in (counting route figures only), he can't be played as the favorite, IMO, although you have to use him in the exotics because is most likely of the favorites to run his race (IMO).

SweetNorthernSaint is an interesting candidate at what should be fair odds. He is 2nd fastest coming in, gets 2 time Derby winner Desormeaux and has tactical speed. He gets 4 weeks rest has several decent figures, besides the big figure in the Illinois Derby. He beat nobody in the Illinois Derby and I get this nagging "Ten Most Wanted" feeling when I look at this guy. However, at a square price, he is certainly usable, as the 2nd fastest horse coming in.

Bob and John is a very interesting horse. I don't think you can call the Wood race "wet track aided", even though the horse is fairly well bred for wet tracks. In the Wood, you get one of those discrepancies between TGraph and Beyer, where Jerry has given the race a faster relative figure, than Beyer has. If JErry is right, the Tgraph player has an edge with Bob and John. At his top, he is as fast as Brother Derek on Tgraph, although less likely to run his race, as it would seem he would be more likely to bounce. Although in the ROTW, the author mentioned that Bob and John had not moved forward much from his 2 year old top, so improvment was due, and that improvement has him as a contender. You get Baffert again, and probably 10-1. Fair price for an improving horse, trained by a Derby winning trainer. Also, interesting that Gomez saw enough to stick with this horse over Sinister Minister, who ran the huge figure at Keenland.

Barbaro will be overbet a bit IMO, since he is an undefeated colt. The five weeks rest will keep some bettors away, which is ironic to tgraph users, since most of us would ignore the 5 week angle and look to get "value" by playing a horse off the longer rest that we would think would be helpful, versus the public perception that the 5 weeks will hurt. The irony comes from the fact that Barbaro is a little slower on Tgraph than he is on Beyers, which offsets the 5 week angle. As the 6th fastest coming in and the probable 3rd choice in the betting, I have to bet against and let him beat me.

Lawyer Ron kind of reminds me of Harlan's Holiday a bit. He has been very visually impressive in the ARkansas races, hence the HH reference, as I remember watching HH inhale the field in the Florida Derby effortlessly and thinking he was going to destroy the Derby field. However, the races haven't come back as fast on the clock/figures as they look visually. Yes, LR is fast, but comparisons to Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex because of the Arkansas route to the Derby, are a little bit off, in that both AA and SJ had run very very fast races in Arkansas. Lawyer Ron's last figure wasn't bad, as he paired his top, but there are a few negatives. First off, he bore in during the stretch, which is almost never a good sigh. Secondly, he has not had a rest yet since his 2 year old campaign started, which is very unusual for a derby winner (I can't remember the last Derby winner that didn't get at least 6 to 8 weeks off in the winter). Third, I don't like that he seems to have trouble rating. Yes, he made the winning move in the Arkansas Derby when he shot the gap on the rail, but he was a bit rank before the move and that doens't bode well going into a race where Sinister Minister will be flying early through hot fractions. And lastly, the price will not be there, because of the winning streak and the Smarty Jones/ Afleet Alex/Arkansas angle. The offshore book I bet at, which is pretty large, has both Lawyer Ron and Brother Derk at 7-2 in the future book now.,

ONe longshot, who may not get in, that I will mention, is Sunriver. I really thought he got a bad trip in the Florida Derby and although he needs a forward move to contend, I think he will move forward next time out and the 5 weeks rest is fine IMO, plus you get Pletcher at maybe 30 or 40 to 1.

More later...

Jim